My predictions for tomorrow’s Iowa Caucus:
- Ron Paul wins by 1 or 2 percent of the vote. Media will profess to be mystified, then dismiss Paul’s win as unimpressive because he “should have” won by more, based on his poll number from 10 days ago. I’m convinced that Paul’s numbers are being undercounted by the traditional polling houses, and I have to believe that a ground game as strong as his can get sticky supporters out in droves tomorrow night.
- Santorum rides the evangelicals into 2nd place. He’ll declare victory and rides off to South Carolina, assiduously avoiding the reasonable people of my beloved New Hampshire in favor of southern fried crazy. He’ll give shout outs to hard work, God, and the sweater vest he stole from Dean Winchester.
- Romney finishes in third. His campaign will spin furiously to convince the media that this showing equals a win; indeed, it seems most of the Beltway repeaters are already parroting the line that 2nd or 3rd is as good as a win for Romney. He’ll smirk off to New Hampshire with the knives out for Santorum and Huntsman. Bonus Prediction: Huntsman’s campaign will put out a video of him at a house party in the North Country or in Concord dismissing the Caucus with a joke that sounded awesome in his head but dies a slow and painful death in the room.
- Perry knuckles his way into 4th. All that money will help cancel out some of his stupid, and he’ll race Santorum to see who can be the first to put down stakes in Myrtle Beach.
- Gingrich will be a shadow of his former bloviating self and stagger into 5th. He’ll blame Romney, Super PAC money, and the evils of Washington insiders for his fall, and while he’s right on all counts, he will neglect to mention his campaign’s biggest liability: uh, him.
- And Bachmann. She’ll be living proof that you really can be too batshit bonkers for white Iowan Christian conservatives: the exception that proves the rule. She, too, will immediately decamp for South Carolina, blaming the media, Lucifer, and Barack Obama for her defeat, not necessarily in that order.